Poll: Romney Running Away in New Hampshire

If he wins in Iowa, and wins New Hampshire, Romney will have, for all intents and purposes, the nomination:

In New Hampshire's Republican Presidential Primary, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 34% support and a nineteen-point lead. Making the most of his home field advantage, Romney has steadily increased his lead from fifteen points earlier in November, nine-points in October and three-points in September.

Giuliani can't finish third or worse in Iowa and New Hampshire. If Huckabee wins or finishes second in Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuliani is toast:

The new primary election poll shows a virtual three-way tie for second place between former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain at 15% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at 14%. For Giuliani and McCain, those figures are a very slight dip from earlier in the month while Huckabee has gained four more percentage points.

Is Huckabee a threat or will he just fade away? We'll find out in Iowa:

Whether Huckabee is simply enjoying fifteen minutes of fame or has become a serious contender for the Republican nomination remains to be seen, but his campaign is certainly enjoying the ride at the moment. In September, his long-shot campaign attracted just 4% of New Hampshire voters and even less support nationally. Now, in addition to his strong showing in New Hampshire, the bass-guitar playing candidate is a frontrunner in Iowa and essentially tied for second nationally.

However, with increased support comes increased challenges. Yesterday, a group that helped rally public opposition to the Senate immigration bill called Huckabee's record on the immigration issue a "disaster." (The Senate immigration bill was defeated when the Senate surrendered to public opinion). Twenty-five percent (25%) of New Hampshire's Primary Voters name immigration as the most important voting issue. The previous Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire found strong support for enforcement measures to reduce illegal immigration. Eighty percent (80%) of Republican primary voters believe that when police pull someone over for a traffic violation, they should routinely check to see if that person is in the country legally. If the person is discovered to be an illegal immigrant, 73% believe that person should be deported.

As for other issues, 24% of New Hampshire voters say the economy is the most important voting issue. Twenty percent (20%) say national security is tops and another 15% believe the War in Iraq is the most important issue. One surprise in the data is that Romney holds a solid lead over Giuliani among those who say national security is the most important issue. In Iowa, Huckabee attracted more national security voters than Giuliani.