Despite Violence Drop, Officers see Bleak Future for Iraq

The surge is a political charade that will have no long term benefit in the war in Iraq. In order for there to be military success there must be a political solution as well. We are involved propping up a government that is fractured and as a result civil war has taken hold. Just as importantly, the political chaos has led to a terrible quality of life that undermines support for that government. This in turn feeds the insurgency:

Despite U.S. claims that violence is down in the Iraqi capital, U.S. military officers are offering a bleak picture of Iraq’s future, saying they’ve yet to see any signs of reconciliation between Sunni and Shiite Muslims despite the drop in violence.

Without reconciliation, the military officers say, any decline in violence will be temporary and bloodshed could return to previous levels as soon as the U.S. military cuts back its campaign against insurgent attacks.

Its smoke and mirrors:

And while top U.S. officials insist that 50 percent of the capital is now under effective U.S. or government control, compared with 8 percent in February, statistics indicate that the improvement in violence is at best mixed.

U.S. officials say the number of civilian casualties in the Iraqi capital is down 50 percent. But U.S. officials declined to provide specific numbers, and statistics gathered by McClatchy Newspapers don't support the claim.

The number of car bombings in July actually was 5 percent higher than the number recorded last December, according to the McClatchy statistics, and the number of civilians killed in explosions is about the same.

That simple. Not only is Bush a terrible commander in chief, but he also has no concept of diplomacy:

He [Lt. Col. Richard Welch] also said the Shiite government’s inability to deliver services to Sunni neighborhoods is a problem.

“Politically there is still corruption and sectarianism in some of the police security forces,” Welch said. “Politically, the government does not seem to be able effectively to deliver services in a way that dramatically improves their situation.”