July Death Tolls of U.S. Troops, Iraqis Diverge

Troop deaths are down but Iraq civilian casualties are up. This is a reversal of the rhetorical of previous months in where the drop in civilian, while more American soldiers died, was touted as proof that the surge was succeeding. This is a devious propaganda ploy intended to influence the Congressional vote on the war. When the truths is the war continues to go badly:

American military deaths for July rose to 76 on Wednesday with the report of three U.S. soldiers killed by a powerful roadside bomb in Baghad, but the toll was still the lowest in eight months as the U.S. said it was gaining control of former militant strongholds.

By contrast, July was the second-deadliest month for Iraqis so far this year, according to an Associated Press tally.

It's still too early. When will it not be too early:

U.S. military officials, while saying they were heartened by the downturn in American deaths, cautioned it was too early to predict a sustained trend.

"We had said over the summer it's going to get harder before it gets easier," said Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, a military spokesman in Baghdad. "We're hoping that we're in the easier part, but we still obviously have a long way to go."

But a careful examination of the stats shows there is no progress with the surge:

Nevertheless, the daily average for U.S. troop deaths in July was at least 2.35 — higher than the daily average of 2.25 last year, and remarkably consistent with average daily casualties in 2005, at 2.32, and 2004, at 2.33.

This was also the deadliest July for U.S. troops since the war began. For the previous three years, the month of July saw a relatively low death toll. In July 2006, 43 U.S. troops were killed in Iraq, and 54 died in each of the previous two Julys.