Daily Revolt

September 29, 2007

Why Hillary Won't Win the Nomination

If the last debate was any indication, Hillary has gone into a defensive mode, with more than 3 months to go before the Iowa caucus. In addition, she has become the target of both Democrats and Republicans. Just as important, national poll numbers before the Iowa caucus seem not to matter.

In December of 2003, just weeks before the Iowa caucus, John Kerry, the winner of that caucus, and eventual Democratic nominee, was 4% in a CBS poll. The frontrunner, Howard Dean, was ahead with 23 percent. Two days after the Iowa caucus, Kerry had a 11% percent lead over Dean in the national polls; a 30 point turn around!

Howard Dean was pounced on before the Iowa caucus. Most of it because he was the front runner; also, he was the target of TV ad attacks from fellow candidate Richard Gephardt. He was totally destroyed after he lost, when the media just kept repeating the video of his bizarre behaviour after his Iowa defeat. The press gets bored with big leads and try to jazz things up. That principle explains why a candidate that finishes a close second is essentially proclaimed the winner. That happened in 1992, when Bill Clinton came in a close second. He had been well back in the national polls prior to the New Hampshire primary. Hillary has to win Iowa big or she is toast; Edwards and Obama understand that.

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